EVA and PV Film Review and Outlook [SMM Analysis]

In April 2024, the PV film and PV-grade EVA granules markets experienced significant market fluctuations. The price of transparent 420g PV film increased from an average of 6.83 yuan/㎡ at the beginning of the month to 7 yuan/㎡ at the end of the month, up 2.49% MoM. The price of PV-grade EVA granules dropped rapidly from an average of 12,916.96 yuan/mt at the beginning of the month to 11,966.54 yuan/mt at the end of the month, a decrease of nearly 1,000 yuan/mt, down 7.36% MoM.

As of the end of April, the inventory of PV-grade EVA granule has shifted from a previous upward trend to maintaining stability with a slow downward trend. From the overall market perspective, both PV-grade EVA granule and film companies hold relatively sufficient PV-grade EVA granule. Frequent maintenance was observed in April, but the supply basically met the market demand for PV-grade EVA. However, entering May, although maintenance remains frequent, and the supply to the market is limited, whether the inventory will further increase remains uncertain.

As of the end of April, the PV film market inventory continued to grow, reaching a new high since the beginning of 2024, even though the PV-grade EVA granule prices declined in April. The main accumulation of film inventory is at the module end. The inventory accumulation of film from March to April showed a slowdown compared to the accumulation from February to March. Inventory should fall in May.

From the perspective of film companies and petrochemical companies' PV-grade EVA granule inventories, PV-grade EVA granules are in a relatively safe inventory state and are significantly controlled by the maintenance of petrochemical companies in April. There has been no significant impact on the bargaining power between petrochemical and film companies. However, the high film inventory has shifted the pressure from the module end to the film end, with module companies holding high inventories gaining the upper hand in bargaining for film. When the module companies destock film inventory in May, it will inevitably significantly affect the production of upstream film companies, causing a decline in film market prices.

If new companies successfully supply a considerable scale of PV-grade EVA granules to the market in June-July, the market price rise may be delayed again. If the film destocking can be completed in a short time, the price increase time may also be advanced.

In April, high PID-resistant low-acid EVA film officially entered the public's view, and LECO bifacial PV modules also officially entered the market in April 2024, becoming new module products. These modules will reduce the use of EPE film in bifacial modules to some extent. However, the reliability of this type of module still needs to be tested by the market. In the short term, the impact on PV-grade EPE film in the next three months is limited. If bifacial EVA becomes the market mainstream, it may alleviate the pressure on PV-grade EVA granules to some extent and shift the pressure to PV-grade POE granules, leading to further price reductions for PV-grade POE granules.

Summary of April: PV-grade EVA granule production schedule decreased, EVA inventory stabilized, film inventory increased, film demand decreased, film supply stabilized, PV-grade EVA granule prices decreased, and film prices increased.

Forecast for May: PV-grade EVA granule prices decrease, film prices decrease.